Clean official statement explicitly concluding operations is near-maximal qualifying evidence.

Headline contains wording that could materially change qualification odds or wording gap.

Muscat talks create an off-ramp but are not equivalent to an end announcement.

Diplomatic reporting can move true de-escalation odds and the timing path toward a qualifying announcement.

Tanker bridge collapse is a meaningful de-escalation tell but remains OSINT and partially correlated with reduced sorties.

Force-posture reporting directly informs whether the operation is winding down or re-escalating.

Reduced sortie tempo supports real de-escalation but does not itself resolve the market.

Force-posture reporting directly informs whether the operation is winding down or re-escalating.

Official language supports de-escalation but is too ambiguous to qualify YES cleanly.

Diplomatic reporting can move true de-escalation odds and the timing path toward a qualifying announcement.

Trump is shifting toward peace/win framing, which supports announcement probability.

Diplomatic reporting can move true de-escalation odds and the timing path toward a qualifying announcement.

Persistent quiet nights are mildly supportive of no imminent escalation, but low confidence keeps impact small.